In this world of flux and hyperchange we are not sure what will happen tomorrow. We know that what works today, may soon be obsolute. The contextual environment that we cannot change, like social, economical, political, technological and ecological driverss dictate what we have to do. We have more influence on the transactional environment like the competition, new entrants, suppliers, sellers and shareholders.
In helping organizations change their cultures in order to be optimally prepared for the future, we use Scenarioplanning. Here we determine what the current business model is, how viable it is in the future. We look at the fit between the organization and its environment. We make scenarios for the future of the external world and windtunnel the (internal) business model in these scearnios and make the business model future proof. Scenarioplanning is not enough for changing a culture. We have to define the desired behaviors and understand how the current behavioral repertoire of the organizatons has been conditioned. With OBM we reinformce the behaviors that support the new business model.
Scenarioplanning approach:
SWOT analysis
Determining the current business model
Finding the main uncertainties about the future
Selecting two of the uncertainties for making two scenario dimensions
Making 4 sceario stories
Windtunnel the current business model in the four scearios
Adapt the business model and start with OBM
Data gathering and processing by interviews and workshops, tailored to the client needs.